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Old March 9th, 2007, 06:46
Ron Cram Ron Cram is offline
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Join Date: 2007-03-09
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Default Is it possible to model predicted climate regime changes?

Bratcher and Giese published a very important paper in 2002. http://physics.ramapo.edu/downloads/...02GL015191.pdf

After reading the SPM4, it appears the IPCC has completely ignored the Bratcher and Giese paper. I am wondering if this is because the GCMs are not up to the task.

In the paper, Bratcher and Giese made observations that caused them to predict a return to pre-1976 climate conditions. As you probably know, surface temperatures rose with rising CO2 in the first part of the 20th century. Then from 1945 to 1975, surface temps dropped. About 1975, Time magazine carried a cover story on the coming Ice Age. So obviously, during this 30 year period, rising CO2 did not correlate with temperature. This is a key issue. How is it possible to have a climate regime lasting 30 years or more in which temperature will correlate with rising CO2 and another climate regime of similar length that does not correlate?

Bratcher and Giese observed that changes in the climate regimes were caused by changes in the Pacific Ocean. It happened in the 1940s, the 1970s and again in 2001 or 2002. In each case, surface temperature changes lagged changes in the Pacific Ocean by about four years. B&G concluded that atmospheric CO2 probably does not play as big a role in temperature change as previously believed. Since B&G's prediction seems to have come true - i.e. the oceans began cooling in 2003 and 2006 was much cooler than expected even though it was an El Nino year - I do not understand why the IPCC did not discuss this apparent climate shift.

Are the GCMs able to model climate shifts like the one predicted by B&G? If not, how can they predict climate 100 years into the future? Is it reasonable to assume the globe will not experience climate shifts similar to the three shifts we have had in the last 60 years? I would appreciate any insight you can give me here.
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