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Old October 13th, 2010, 11:12
Patrick LEE Patrick LEE is offline
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Join Date: 2005-02-02
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 358
Default Can we forecast the interannual changes of temperature?

The attached file contains a paper I written last year in pdf format. Hope you find this paper to be useful.

Patrick Lee.

Despite of the universal belief that it is impossible to simulate the annual surface air temperature changes by coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), a very accurate re-construction of these changes between A.D. 1984 and 1995 was obtained using a coarse resolution AOGCM. This accurate re-construction suggests that the ability
to predict long-range weather and climate is many orders of magnitude higher than most people thought previously. Natural and anthropogenic forcings boost the predictability of annual temperature changes in 1980s and early 1990s to such a high that the simulation hindcasts the annual temperature changes with pinpoint accuracy. The close agreements between the observed and simulated temperature changes between 1990 and 1994 imply that the weak El Niņos occurred in rapid succession during the early 1990s did not alter the interannual changes of surface air temperature significantly.
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choas, predictability, simulation result, temperature anomaly

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